미국 중앙은행인 연방준비제도(Fed)가 29일 현행기준금리(0~0.25%)를  동결하며, 기준금리인상과 관련해 지난 3월 FOMC가 발표한 성명에서의 문구와 같이 '합리적 확신'을 가진 뒤에 기준금리를 올리는 것이 적당하다는 FOMC 회의 결과를 성명으로 발표했다. 이에 대해 정부는 시장에서 에상했던 수준이라며 잠재적인 위험요인에 대해서는 선제 대응해 나간다는 입장이다. 

 FOMC는 이번 성명에서 고용.주택시장 개선을 부각하며 낙관적 평가를 내렸다. 성명서에 따르면 FOMC위원들은 일자리 증가 추세가 "견조하다'고 표현했으며, 주택시장은 '추가적인 개선이 이뤄졌다"고 평가했다.

이날 FOMC성명서는 재닛 옐런 연준의장을 비롯해 10명의 FOMC 위원 전원이 동의했다. 한편  FOMC는기준금리 인상 시기에 대해서  어떠한 신호도 보내지 않았다. 다음 FOMC정례회의는 오는 9월16일부터 이틀동안 열린다.

FOMC의 이번 결정에 대해 기획재정부는 시장에서 예상했던 수준이라며 금리인상에 관한 포워드 가이던스(선제안내)가 그대로 유지됐기 때문에 하반기 미국의 금리인상가능성에 대비해 모니터링을 강화하고,잠재적인 위험요인에 대해 선제 대응해 나갈 것이라고 30일 밝혔다. 옐런 의장은 지난 5월부터 금리인상을 시사하고 있다.

 금리인상시기와 관련해 시장 전문가들은 향후 고용,주택시장 동향이 연준의 금리인상에 변수가 될 것이라며 9월이나 10월 금리인상을 예측하는 견해가 지배적이다. 블룸버그는 앞으로 발표될 고용비용지수와 국내총생산(GDP) , 개인소비지출지수 등이 연준의 9월금리 인상 여부 결정에 영향을 미칠 것으로 분석했다.

 장  혜 린 기자 hljang@sisabarotimes.com

출처: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20150729a.htm

Release Date: July 29, 2015  

For immediate release

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June indicates that economic activity has been expanding moderately in recent months. Growth in household spending has been moderate and the housing sector has shown additional improvement; however, business fixed investment and net exports stayed soft. The labor market continued to improve, with solid job gains and declining unemployment. On balance, a range of labor market indicators suggests that underutilization of labor resources has diminished since early this year. Inflation continued to run below the Committee's longer-run objective, partly reflecting earlier declines in energy prices and decreasing prices of non-energy imports. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; survey‑based measures of longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace, with labor market indicators continuing to move toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. The Committee continues to see the risks to the outlook for economic activity and the labor market as nearly balanced. Inflation is anticipated to remain near its recent low level in the near term, but the Committee expects inflation to rise gradually toward 2 percent over the medium term as the labor market improves further and the transitory effects of earlier declines in energy and import prices dissipate. The Committee continues to monitor inflation developments closely.

To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that the current 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate remains appropriate. In determining how long to maintain this target range, the Committee will assess progress--both realized and expected--toward its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. The Committee anticipates that it will be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate when it has seen some further improvement in the labor market and is reasonably confident that inflation will move back to its 2 percent objective over the medium term.

The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. This policy, by keeping the Committee's holdings of longer-term securities at sizable levels, should help maintain accommodative financial conditions.

When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent. The Committee currently anticipates that, even after employment and inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the Committee views as normal in the longer run.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; Charles L. Evans; Stanley Fischer; Jeffrey M. Lacker; Dennis P. Lockhart; Jerome H. Powell; Daniel K. Tarullo; and